000 AXNT20 KNHC 261749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Franklin is centered near 23.5N 66.7W at 26/1500 UTC or 270 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently around 24 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 19N to 26N and between 62W and 69W. A northward to north-northwestward motion is expected over the western Atlantic through early next week. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Franklin could become a major hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are also likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend into early next week along portions of the east coast of the United States Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Invest 93L: A 1006 mb low pressure system located near the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 18N to 24N and between 82W and 89W. The storm activity continues to gradually become better organized. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated on this system later today. The system is expected to move very slowly northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of development is high over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis, bringing some rain activity to the Cabo Verde Islands. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 13N and between 38W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N29W and 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 12N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest 93L centered in the Yucatan Channel. Water vapor satellite imagery depict an upper level low over Mexico and a weak surface trough extends from NW Yucatan to Tamaulipas. Divergence aloft results in isolated to scattered moderate convection north of the surface trough to 26N. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak 1015 mb high pressure system centered in the northwest corner of the basin. Locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found off Veracruz, while moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered across the SE U.S. will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds. Developing low pres over the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong southerly winds and high seas over the eastern Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest 93L centered in the Yucatan Channel. Aside from Invest 93L, a surface trough extends across Hispaniola to 21N82W and a combination of plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft sustain scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection north of 15N and between 70W and 81W. These storms are also affecting SE Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient maintains primarily light to gentle variable winds, except for stronger winds near the areas of strong convection. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Caribbean. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the S-central and NW Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across the basin through the weekend as Hurricane Franklin moves northward and away from the Caribbean region. A developing area of low pres in the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized through the weekend, as it drifts northward across the NW Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build modestly to the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to moderate to fresh trade winds, locally strong in the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Hurricane Franklin. The stationary boundary previously stretching southwest of Bermuda has weakened into a surface trough. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure system (Invest 92L) is located near 24N41W in the central Atlantic and producing a large area and elongated area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 21N to 31N and between 45W and 53W. Fresh SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the area described. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Another weak low pressure is centered near 29N32W and the convective activity is occurring north of 31N. The remainder of the basin, outside of the deep tropics, is under the dominance of a dry airmass. The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the Azores and lower pressures over NW Africa support fresh northerly winds off Western Sahara, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, newly upgraded Hurricane Franklin is near 23.5N 66.7W at 11 AM EDT moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen through Tue, as it moves to near 24.2N 67.0W this evening, near 25.4N 67.8W Sun morning, near 27.0N 68.8W Sun evening, near 28.5N 69.4W Mon morning, near 30.2N 69.5W Mon evening, and exit the area moving N-NE Tue morning. High pressure will build westward across the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds are expected to increase offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a low pres system, a possible tropical cyclone, moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ DELGADO