271 
AXNT20 KNHC 260556
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Franklin, at 26/0300 UTC, is near
22.4N 66.2W. FRANKLIN is moving toward the ENE, or 060 degrees,
07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 
knots.
Tropical storm-force winds are: within 80 nm of the center in 
the NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea
heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 90 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The maximum sea heights that are near the center are 18 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm
of the center in the E semicircle. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere, from 17N in the Caribbean Sea
on the southern sides of Hispaniola and around Puerto Rico
to 26N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 59W and 72W. 

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO (AL93):

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 19N86W. A surface trough
extends from NW Cuba, through the 1007 mb low pressure center,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the low
pressure center to the southern coastal sections of Cuba between
80W and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are within
240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for more development of this
system during the next several days. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form late this weekend or early next week. The
forecast is for the system to move generally northward in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Anyone who has interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, in western Cuba, and in Florida, should
monitor the progress of this system. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

Please, refer to the following website,  
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information about each
weather system.

...METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE AGADIR...

The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours after the initial 
METEO-FRANCE forecast period, consists of the threat
of North or Northeast near gale or gale in the marine
zone AGADIR. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE
forecast, at the website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2,
for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 21N
southward, moving west 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on
either side of the tropical wave. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 12N
southward, moving west 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N22W 10N30W 08N42W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 13N southward from 52W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about a NW Caribbean Sea low pressure center, that is 
forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next few days.

Broad surface low pressure is in much of the area,
from 95W eastward. A surface ridge extends from the
upper Texas Gulf Coast to 21N98W in the coastal plains
of Mexico.

The sea heights are: 3 feet from the Louisiana coastal
waters, into the central sections of the Gulf, to the
coastal waters of Mexico along 20N; 1 foot off the coast
of west central Florida; 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or 
slower wind speeds are in the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure centered across the SE U.S. will
dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend,
providing gentle to moderate winds. Developing low pres
over the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become
better organized and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Expect increasing winds and seas over the eastern Gulf
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for
details about the AL93 INVEST, that currently is in
the NW Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights are: 2 feet from 20N southward from 80W
eastward, and from 20N northward from 80W westward;
1 foot elsewhere. Moderate or faster wind speeds are
from 17N northward between 62W and 70W. These winds are
on the southern side of the circulation of T.S. Franklin.

The monsoon trough extends from the 1007 mb 19N86W
NW Caribbean Sea low pressure, through Honduras and
El Salvador, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is on the southern
side of the 1007 mb low pressure center, from 83W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC,
are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. 

Light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the S-central
and NW Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across
the basin through the weekend as T.S. Franklin moves northward
and away from the Caribbean region. A developing area of low
pres in the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better
organized through the weekend, as it drifts northward across the
NW Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. A tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure will build modestly to the N of the region Tue and Wed
to bring a return to moderate to fresh trade winds, locally
strong in the central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Tropical Storm Franklin.

AL92 INVEST is a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 22N47W.
Fresh winds are within 270 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters is within 330 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and
within 420 nm of the center in the E quadrant. It is possible
that the environmental conditions may become more conducive for
the development of this system during the weekend. It is 
possible that a tropical depression may form early next week.
The forecast movement is northwestward in the central 
subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

The 1010 mb remnant low pressure center of GERT is near 16N60W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 480 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; and within 240 nm of the
center in the W semicircle.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 33N54W. A stationary
front extends from the 1012 mb low center, through 31N66W,
to 30N71W, curving to 25N75W. A surface trough continues
from 25N75W, curving through the Bahamas, to 23N75W and
23N79W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, and
the wind speeds are gentle, from 27N northward between 54W
and 60W.

Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea
heights mostly range from 4 feet to 6 feet. Some areas
of 3 feet to 5 feet are spread throughout the rest of
the Atlantic Ocean. 

Tropical Storm Franklin is near 22.4N 66.2W at 11 PM EDT, and
is moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 996 mb. Franklin will move to 23.0N 66.0W Sat morning,
23.9N 66.3W Sat evening, 25.3N 67.0W Sun morning, strengthen
to a hurricane near 27.0N 67.9W Sun evening, 28.8N 68.4W
Mon morning, and 30.5N 68.4W Mon evening. Franklin will 
change little in intensity as it moves well N of the area to 
34.7N 66.5W late Tue. High pressure will build westward across 
the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds may increase 
offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a low pres system 
moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
mt/jl