000 AXNT20 KNHC 250601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 22.6N 68.3W at 25/0300 UTC or 170 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, and moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Fresh to near-gale winds are found farther outward, up to 60 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted near and southeast of the center from 19N to 23N between 64W and 69W. Peak seas range from 23 ft to 25 kt with the 12 ft seas extending up to 105 nm NE quadrant, 90 nm SE quadrant, 60 nm SW quadrant and 75 nm NW quadrant. Franklin will continue moving ENE through Fri, then turns sharply north Fri night and Sat with little change in forward speed. Gradual strengthening is forecast through this coming weekend and Franklin should become a hurricane on Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system (remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is located near 32N49W and moving N at 20 kt. Near-gale to gale SE to S winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are found up to 240 nm northeast and east of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 29N between 45W and 48W. This system could still become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next day or so before moving over colder waters and interacting with a frontal boundary. This system has a medium formation chance in the next 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.PHP and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=altc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 22N southward through a 1009 mb low pressure (AL92) near 19N43W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 37W and 44W. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found northeast of the center from 18N to 23N between 39W and 43W. Environmental conditions are could become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=altc&fdays=2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just south of Dakar, then extends southwestward through 10N24W to 07N36W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N36W to north of French Guiana at 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the trough from 06N to 13N between the Gambia/Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 36W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 190 nm south, and 90 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A large elongated upper-level low along with it associated surface trough over the southwestern Gulf are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across west-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche. A weakening stationary front reaches westward from southern Florida to the east-central Gulf at 27N84W. Isolated thunderstorms are present near and up to 60 nm north of the feature. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the entire Gulf. For the forecast, modest surface ridging will dominate the Gulf through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move generally northward into eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week, which will raise the potential for increasing winds and seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Convergent westerly winds are causing isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and the Windward Passage, and over southern Hispaniola. Converging easterly winds are generating similar conditions near the Colombia coast. Gentle to moderate winds are from the ENE to SE at the northwestern basin, and NE to ENE at the southeastern basin. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin, while 1 to 3 ft seas are evident for the entire basin. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the south-central and southeastern basin, and slight seas will prevail across the basin through the weekend. Looking ahead, the broad surface trough is forecast to become a low pressure system and move generally northward from the northwestern basin into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This might cause both winds and seas to increase. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Franklin, and a Gale Warning associated with the remnants of Emily. A stationary front southwest of Bermuda curves southwestward across 31N70W to a 1010 mb low pressure northeast of the Bahamas at 28N74W, then turns westward as a weakening cold front to southern Florida. Widely scattered showers exist up to 60 nm along either side of these features. An upper-level trough near 28N67W is producing widely scattered moderate convection from 24N to 28N between 65W and 68W. Convergent southerly winds are inducing similar convection north of 27N between 53W and 57W. A 1010 mb low pressure, the remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert near 16N59W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and north of Barbados from 12N to 16N between 56W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen near and north of the stationary/cold front. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Franklin, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present from north of 20N between 50W and the stationary/cold front/Bahamas. Farther east, gentle with locally moderate NNE to SE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 50W, including the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic other than the area near the tropical wave, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate from 07N to 20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to 22.9N 67.5W Fri morning, 23.2N 66.7W Fri evening and 23.7N 66.6W Sat morning. It is expected to strengthen to a hurricane near 24.8N 67.0W Sat evening, then move to 26.1N 67.7W Sun morning and 27.8N 68.1W Sun evening. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves northward into the subtropical Atlantic near 31.9N 68.2W late Mon. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 8 ft will continue north of the stationary/cold front through early Fri. Winds may increase offshore Florida by Tue night due to a low pres system possibly moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Chan