000 AXNT20 KNHC 242334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 22.4N 68.9W at 24/2100 UTC or 130 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 20N to 24N between 64W and 70W. Peak seas are near 20 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90 nm NE quadrant, 75 nm SE quadrant, and 45 nm NW quadrant. Franklin will continue moving ENE for the next 24 hours, followed by a slowdown and sharp turn to the N or NNW. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Franklin is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system, which is the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily, is located near 31N48W moving N. Near-gale to gale SE to S winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are found N of 30N between 45W and 48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N between 48W and 50W. Gales will continue on the east side of the center until after the system moves north of 31N tonight. Recently received satellite wind data suggests that the system has lost organization from yesterday, but a tropical depression or storm could still form as it moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf Stream. This system has a medium formation chance in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 22N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 19N42W with a central pressure of 1009 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 24N between 40W and 45W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the NE semicircle of the low along with seas 5 to 7 ft. While environmental conditions are marginal for additional development, they could become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 08N30W to 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 04N46W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 18N between 13W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A large elongated upper-level low near the NE Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high over the NW Gulf is leading to drier weather there. A cold front is pushing across the eastern Gulf, extending from Tampa Bay, FL to 28N88W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the SW Florida coast and near the Keys ahead of this cold front. Moderate winds are noted N of the front. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the basin with 1 to 3 ft seas. Over the southern Gulf, moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this weekend near the Yucatan Channel. Some gradual development is possible early next week as it moves slowly NNE across the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea. In addition, scattered thunderstorms are seen across Jamaica and Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin through the weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Franklin, and a Gale Warning associated with the remnants of Emily. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES for details on Invest AL92 located over the central Tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends across the SW N Atlantic from 31N71W to a 1010 mb low near 29N74W to the coast of West Palm Beach, FL. Scattered showers are noted near and north of the low, with scattered thunderstorms noted ahead of the cold front in south Florida. Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring NW of the low with moderate to fresh NW winds N of the front. Seas N of the front range 6 to 8 ft. In the central Atlantic outside of Franklin, Remnants of Emily, and AL92, a 1010 mb low pressure near 16.6N 59W is the remnant low of Gert. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13N to 18N between 56W and 60W. In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin is near 22.4N 68.9W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Franklin will move to 22.6N 68.1W Fri morning, 23.1N 67.0W Fri afternoon, 23.5N 66.6W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.3N 66.5W Sat afternoon, 25.6N 67.1W Sun morning, and 27.3N 67.7W Sun afternoon. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves to 31.0N 68.3W on Mon afternoon. A cold front extends from 29N74W to 27N80W. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will continue north of the front through early Fri. $$ AReinhart