000 AXNT20 KNHC 160844 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa near 17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N E of 20W. This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest, with an area of low pressure forming in a couple of days near or just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the low is possible over the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early next week. The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 37W/38W, from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 32W and 41W. A perturbation has developed in association to the tropical wave within the monsoon trough. The tropical wave will continue moving westward while this perturbation remains in its wake. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this perturbation, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while moving toward the west or west- northwest across the central tropical Atlantic. The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 63W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 58W and 62W. The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near 86W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Dakar near 14N17W to 13N19W to 13N31W to 11N38W to 13N47W to 12N50W. The ITCZ continues from 12N50W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 21W and 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan peninsula, and is currently over the SW Gulf supporting moderate winds to the east of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-2 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds west of the Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the north central Caribbean. Moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean today. The pressure gradient will loosen tonight, resulting in a slight decrease in winds over the area. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominate the entire subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh E winds W of 40W S of 25N and mainly fresh NE winds E of 40W. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola each evening. Fresh E winds will develop S of 25N starting Thu. A cold front will approach the NW waters then stall, but fresh SW winds can be expected Thu and Thu night in the NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ AL