954 AXNT20 KNHC 142329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...Special Features... Meteo-France is forecasting possible northerly gale winds in their Agadir marine zone by 15/1200Z. Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the eastern Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 11N to 16N between 22W and 26W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 15N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from Cuba southward to northwest Colombia. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the Mauritania coast near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 12N37W to 09N50W. The ITCZ extends from 09N50W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 06N to 17N and E of 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 46W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The northern tip of a tropical wave over southern Mexico/East Pacific is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. These storms are beginning to subside this evening. A surface trough runs southward from the Florida Panhandle to the southeastern Gulf. Aided by a mid- level trough in the vicinity, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring at the central and east- central Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds near showers, and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail over the eastern Bay of Campeche off the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust upper-level low at the western basin near 17N87W is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. The Atlantic Ridge north of the area near 27N is sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist for the central basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are present near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and near the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds and a surface trough over the Bahamas are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 73W and the Georgia- northeast Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 1024 mb high near 35N45W to the northwest Bahamas is providing light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 25N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At the central Atlantic north of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident between 25W and 60W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen. North of 21N between the Africa coast and 25W, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas 4 to 7 ft are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE and monsoonal westerly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are noted from 12N to 21N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move westward toward the Bahamas into Tue. Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings into Tue night. $$ AReinhart