000 AXNT20 KNHC 130550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The OUTLOOK for the METEO-FRANCE forecast, for the 24-hour time period that follows the initial 36-hour forecast, consists of: the threat of near gale or gale, in the AGADIR and CANARIAS marine zones. Please, refer to the website: wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 07N to 12N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 15N. This area includes parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, from Trinidad and Tobago to Martinique. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through parts of Central America from Costa Rica to Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the eastern sections of Nicaragua and Honduras, and in parts of the Yucatan Channel. Numerous strong is from 11N to 15N between 86W and 91W, from the western sections of Nicaragua to SE Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N20W, 11N30W, and 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W, to 09N42W 10N50W, and 11N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the east of the 28W/29W tropical wave, from 07N to 12N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A surface trough extends from NE Florida to 24N83W in the coastal waters that are to the west of SW Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N to 28N between Florida and 86W. Scattered moderate to strong is off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, in broad surface low pressure. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area. The sea heights: are reaching 3 feet off the middle Texas Gulf coast, and in the west central sections; 1 foot in the NE corner of the area; and 2 feet elsewhere. A trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the 83W/84W tropical wave and the nearby precipitation. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is between 60W and 81W. A surface trough is along 21N66W-through the Mona Passage-13N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward from 68W westward. between 6the Mona Passage and 78W. The comparatively highest sea height of 9 feet is along 74W in the coastal waters/offshore waters of Colombia. The sea heights: reaching 3 feet in eastern half of the Venezuela coastal waters/offshore waters; 5 feet in the western Venezuela coastal waters; 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward; 4 feet from 20N northward; and ranging 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall total, during the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL TABLES, MIATPTPAN, is: 0.35 in Guadeloupe. Fresh to strong winds will persist across much of the central and southwest Caribbean through tonight as high pressure prevails north of the area. Except for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras Sun night, these winds and seas will diminish slightly this week over most of the basin as a trough moving into the Bahamas weakens the area of high pressure. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again over the south-central Caribbean into mid week as high pressure builds again over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough and cyclonic wind flow cover the area that is from Cuba northward between the Bahamas and FLorida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the line that runs from 31N65W to SE Cuba. One upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N46W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N58W. A surface trough is along 30N46W, to 28N55W, to 24N63W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N northward between 50W and 62W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 62W. The sea heights in general range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 40W eastward. Some exceptions are: for the range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 14N southward between 30W and 40W, and from 12N to 22N from 25W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Strong NE winds are within 180 nm on either side of 31N19W 29N22W 27N34W 21N46W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 360 nm on either side of 31N19W 29N22W 25N34W 20N45W 15N60W. Fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 35W eastward. Moderate winds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical ridge will lift northward ahead of a surface trough moving westward toward the Bahamas through early next week. Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough Sun to Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings through Tue. $$ mt/al