026 
AXNT20 KNHC 120851
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Aug 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 26W/27W, from
16N southward, moving westward around 10 knots. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between
24W and 29W. 

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 52W, from 17N
southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 48W and 52W. 

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 80W, from 20N 
southward, moving westward about 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 11N between 76W and
82W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW Senegal
to 11N19W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 06N51W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 15N between 16W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 09N between 30W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, with a surface
trough west of the Yucatan Peninsula. A locally tighter pressure 
gradient in the vicinity of this trough is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds
are noted over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. 
Elsewhere, the ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin into mid
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail over the 
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, 
are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 2-4 ft, are over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the south-central
Caribbean will expand across much of the central and southwest
Caribbean through late today as high pressure builds north of
the area. Except for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras Sun night, these winds and seas will diminish slightly
into early next week over most of the basin as a trough moving
into the Bahamas weakens the high pressure. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will increase again over the south-central Caribbean as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N41W to 22N61W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is along the southern portion of
the trough W of 56W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted N of
20N and east of 35W to the coast of Africa. Gentle to moderate 
winds dominate the remainder of the Atlantic waters. Seas are in 
the 8-11 ft range N of 20N and E of 35W, and 6-8 ft S of 20N and E
of 35W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge extends along 
28N and will lift northward today ahead of a surface trough moving
westward toward the Bahamas through early next week. Expect 
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough
Sun to Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola 
during the late afternoons and early evenings through Tue. 

$$
AL