000 AXNT20 KNHC 110846 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Aug 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 22W, from 17N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 25W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 44W, from 17N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 40W and 45W. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 72W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13.5N16W to 09N28W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 25W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a locally tighter pressure gradient resulting from a thermal trough which moved off the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range W of 90W, and 1-3 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, surface ridging across the Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the western Gulf with slight to moderate seas. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night and produce fresh to strong winds off NW Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over the waters S of 15N between 65W and 72W. Moderate winds are elsewhere E of 75W. Gentle to moderate winds are found W of 75W. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range E of 75W, and 1-3 ft W of 75W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean today, locally strong in the south- central portion. Light to gentle winds can be expected for the western basin. Tonight through Tue night, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will expand across the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Fresh to strong winds are noted from 20N to 30N E of 30W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range E of 30W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will be situated near 28N through the weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong north of Hispaniola during the evenings Sat through Tue. $$ AL