000 AXNT20 KNHC 091035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N and east of 23W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 35W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to 15N and between 57W and 61W. These storms are likely producing gusty winds. Seas in the area range 4-6 ft. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 72W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the northern portion of the trough axis, N of Hispaniola from 19N to 22N between 69W and 74W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Most of the convection associated with this wave is occurring in the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 13N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N and E of 27W and from 05N to 11N between 29W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends in the eastern Bay of Campeche with showers near it. Otherwise, weak riding extends across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over Mexico support moderate to locally fresh E-SE in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. The wave heights in the region described are 2-4 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Winds across the western Gulf will increase to moderate to fresh tonight, continuing through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms persist in the lee of Cuba and near the Cayman Islands, from 17N to 22N between 78W and 84W. Similar convection is evident in the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly within 100 nm of northern Panama and Costa Rica. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Locally moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over the Caribbean through tonight, with fresh winds in the south- central basin. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu through Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. By Sun, fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail through most of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection persist off NE Florida due to divergence aloft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1020 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 26N67W and 26N27W. This is allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean region sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 50W. The seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted north of 27N and west of 35W, along with seas of 4-8 ft. The highest seas are present near 31N44W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected through tonight S of 25N and E of 78W. Later in the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds fresh to strong with moderate seas across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh winds will resume on Sun. $$ AReinhart