000 AXNT20 KNHC 082014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged from the west coast of Africa and is located near 20W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 14W and 23W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 32W/33W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 08N between 29W and 35W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 54W/55W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted from 06N to 16N between 50W and 60W. A eastern Carribbean tropical wave is located near the Anegada Passage and eastern Puerto Rico, with its axis near 65W, south of 22N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection enhanced by an upper level low is depicted from 13N to 23N between 60W and 71W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is located near 82W/83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is depicted near the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and the wave axis, south of 12N between 77W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N22W to 11N39W. The ITCZ continues from 11N39W to 12.5N52W. Aside from the convection described with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted from 05N to 10N east of 24W, from 07N to 10N between 40W and 50W, and from 12N to 16N between 43W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico along 26N. A weak pressure gradient promotes gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are depicted west of 90W and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by Wed, continuing through most of the week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any associated impacts and convection. Elsewhere, a generally dry airmass suppresses the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America support fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate trades are expected in the eastern and western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly tonight into Wed night. A tropical wave will move into the eastern and central Caribbean Thu into Fri, bringing fresh to strong winds and moderate seas to the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any associated impacts and convection. The combination of a 1023 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 26N45W and a dry air mass associated with Sahara Dust are suppressing convection development elsewhere north of 15N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the tropics are found south of 25N and west of 45W, locally strong near the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Fresh E trade winds S of 25N and E of 78W will diminish to mostly moderate speeds tonight through Wed. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse moderate to fresh through Thu. Later in the week, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the southeastern waters. This will increase winds fresh to strong across the region Thu through Sat, including the Bahamas. $$ Lewitsky