000 AXNT20 KNHC 071805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 07 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean is along 23W/24W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N southward from 27W eastward. This precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean is along 41W/42WW from 17N southward, moving westward about 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is close to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 13N to 14N between 60W and 61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 22N southward between 52W and 61W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. This wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is between 70W and 80W. The GFS model also shows broad 700 mb cyclonic wind flow in much of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N southward between 60W and 80W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from central Nicaragua northward from 80W westward. The comparatively stronger precipitation that is from east central Nicaragua is related to the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N20W, 13N30W and 11N37W. The ITCZ continues from 11N37W, to 10N43W and 10N55W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 90 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 28W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 15N between 42W and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 55W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level inverted trough that was in the Yucatan Peninsula has moved toward the west and the northwest. An upper level ridge now runs from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico beyond the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area, mostly on the southeastern side of the trough. A surface trough is along 93W/94W, from 17N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 22N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N southward from 90W westward. A surface ridge passes through 27N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, through Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot in the eastern half of the Gulf. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from from the coastal waters of Louisiana into the west central sections of the Gulf, and in the coastal waters of Mexico along 20N. The sea heights are 3 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area. Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during . Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by mid-week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information about the 71W/72W tropical wave, and the 84W tropical wave. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 69 and 81W. The 9 foot sea heights are in the coastal waters of Colombia between 75W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet in the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet in the Venezuela coastal waters, and off the SE coast of Nicaragua. The sea heights are 5 feet elsewhere from 70W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet from 15N northward from 80W westward. Strong NE winds are within 250 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 77W. Fresh NE-to-E winds are elsewhere the Greater Antilles southward from 66W westward. Moderate easterly winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the area. The monsoon trough is along 07N/10N from northern Colombia beyond the central sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 06N to 12N between the border of Colombia and Panama, and 87W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 0.24 in Bermuda, and 0.18 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean through Tue, with fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades are expected in the western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly by mid-week with gentle to moderate winds expected to prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N northward from 60W westward. A stationary front is along 35N/36N from 60W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 24W westward. A surface ridge is along 34N32W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 30N49W, to 27N72W, beyond Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. Strong NE-to-E winds are from 19N to 21N between 63W and 66W. Fresh NE-to-E winds are: from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N between 35W and 47W; from 14N to 25N between 47W and 70W. Fresh southerly winds are from 06N southward between 29W and 40W. Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward between 70W and 78W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 15N to 25N between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, with some isolated 7 foot heights, elsewhere from 70W eastward. The sea heights are 4 feet or less from 70W westward. The subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE trade winds to continue through this evening S of 25N and E of 75W. Increased swell due to these winds is expected to subside by tonight. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds this afternoon and evening. Starting Tue, these winds will be mostly at gentle to moderate speeds through early Thu, then increase slightly to fresh speeds through Fri night. $$ mt/ja