000 AXNT20 KNHC 071012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22N from 16N southward, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 19W and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N southward, and moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 40W and 42W. This wave is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles around midweek, increasing the chance of thunderstorms and gusty winds. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 15N to 21N between 51W and 55W. An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from Hispaniola southward into northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward across central Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along the southern coast of Cuba and nearby waters. Isolated thunderstorms are present farther west in the Gulf of Honduras, and adjacent to the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near 18N16W to 17N30W to 16N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 41W and 48W. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high in the north-central Gulf extending south of Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist across the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, the 1017 mb high and related ridge will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by mid- week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the Caribbean basin. A tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the north near 27N and Colombian Low over northwestern Colombia continues to cause fresh to strong ENE to E winds in the south-central basin. Seas range 9 to 9 ft. Mainly fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted across the north- central basin. Gentle NE to E winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft persist at the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present just north of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through Tue, with fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades are expected in the western basin. Winds across the Caribbean will diminish slightly by mid-week with gentle to moderate winds expected to prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate convection southwest and south of Bermuda, north of 26N between 64W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present north of 26N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. In the central Atlantic, a large dome of 1026 mb high near 30N50W is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between 23W and 60W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderately north swell exist north of 18N between the Africa coast and 23W. Across the tropical Atlantic between the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles and 35W, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are visible from 12N to 26N. Between 35W and the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are found from 13N to 26N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal westerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1027 mb high and associated subtropical ridge axis will continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Expect fresh ESE trade winds to continue through this evening, S of 25N and E of 75W. These winds will are bringing increased swell to the area, which will subside by tonight. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds during the afternoons and evening today. By Tue, winds will be mostly gentle to moderate through midweek. $$ AReinhart