000 AXNT20 KNHC 070553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N southward, and moving west around 20 kt. This wave is interacting with a 1015 mb low in the vicinity near 10N40W, resulting in widespread scattered moderate convection with gusty winds and 5 to 7 ft seas from 07N to 14N between 37W and 46W. This wave is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles around midweek, increasing the chance of thunderstorms and gusty winds. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 21N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found east of the northern Leeward Islands from 17N to 21N between 48W and 60W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from just north of the Mona Passage southward into northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over Hispaniola and near Puerto Rico, the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from the Cayman Islands southward across central Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along the southern coast of Cuba and nearby waters. Isolated thunderstorms are present farther west in the Gulf of Honduras, and adjacent to the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast near the Senegal-Mauritania border, then extends southwestward across 13N30W and a 1015 mb low near 10N40W to 10N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from 07N to 13N between 22W and 28W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident farther east from 12N to 15N near the Gambia-Senegal coast. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1017 mb high at the north-central Gulf to south of Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist across the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, the 1017 mb high and related ridge will support gentle to moderate winds over much of the Gulf. Moderate southerly flow across the far western Gulf will continue through Tue, then becoming moderate to locally fresh and expand to the southwestern Gulf on Wed. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Fri, producing moderate to fresh winds northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the Caribbean basin. A tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the north near 27N and Colombian Low over northwestern Colombia continues to cause fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft across the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted across the north-central basin. Gentle NE to E winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft persist at the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present just north of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south- central basin, and fresh trade winds over the north-central basin through Tue. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades are expected over the eastern basin, while gentle to moderate trades will continue in the western basin. Winds across the entire basin will diminish slightly by midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate convection southwest and south of Bermuda, north of 26N between 66W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present north of 26N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At the central Atlantic, A large dome of 1027 mb high near 30N50W is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between 23W and 60W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderately north swell exist north of 18N between the Africa coast and 23W. Across the tropical Atlantic between the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles and 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are visible from 12N to 26N. Between 35W and the Cabo Verde Islands outside of the 1015 mb low near 10N40W, gentle to moderate ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are found from 13N to 26N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal westerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1027 mb high and associated subtropical ridge axis will continue to support fresh ESE trade winds along with increasing trade-wind swell south of 25N and east of 75W through Mon. Winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong during the afternoons and evenings through Mon. By Tue, winds west of 55W will be mostly gentle to moderate through midweek. $$ Forecaster Chan