000 AXNT20 KNHC 051804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean is along 37W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 07N to 10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 15N to 22N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. The wave is moving through parts of Central America and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 96W in Mexico, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. The wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N southward from 90W westward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N20W, 12N30W, 11N40W, and 09N53W. Precipitation: widelyscattered moderate to isolated strong is in clusters within 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate is within 270 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between the 37W tropical wave and the 54W/55W tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information about the 96W tropical wave, and the precipitation. A broad surface ridge extends from 30N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the NW Bahamas and south Florida, to a Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb 27N88W high pressure center. The ridge continues to the upper Texas Gulf coast/SW Louisiana. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot from the coastal waters of Louisiana, toward the Yucatan Peninsula and everywhere else from 90W eastward. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet: in the Texas coastal waters and off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights are 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area. Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue through early next week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information about the 70W tropical wave. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from 14N southward between the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia and 81W. The 9 foot seas are in the coastal waters of Colombia between 75W and 76W. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the Venezuela coastal waters. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet from 14N to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica from 80W eastward. The sea heights are reaching: 3 feet off the coast of SE Nicaragua, and in the coastal waters of Honduras; and elsewhere from 1 foot to 2 feet from 15N northward from 80W westward. Near gale-force NE winds are from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere from 16N southward between 72W and 78W. Fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the area that is between the 70W tropical wave and 82W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough extends from the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia beyond the southern sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 16N southward from 78W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.53 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.36 in Nassau in the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are expected in the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N60W to the SE Bahamas. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that a trough is moving through the SE U.S.A. The trough is about 750 nm to the NW of the 31N60W-to-SE Bahamas line. A 1022 mb low pressure center is near 33N34W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 28N northward between 25W and 40W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward between 40W and 67W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N43W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 14N to 25N between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, with some isolated 7 foot heights, elsewhere from 60W eastward. The sea heights are 4 feet or less from 60W westward. Strong easterly winds are from 17N to 21N between 49W and the 54W/55W tropical wave. Fresh easterly winds are from 14N to 26N from 70W eastward. Mostly moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 70W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early next week. Expect ESE trade winds to increase to fresh speeds this weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong speeds during the afternoons and evenings through Mon. $$ mt