000 AXNT20 KNHC 050551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 32W and 40W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 13N between 40W and 54W, and from 15N to 21N between 52W and 55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from just north of Puerto Rico southward into northern Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near the eastern Dominican Republic and Mona Passage, and just west of the Windward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania just south of Nouakchott, then extends west-southwestward through 13N35W to 09N53W. Other than the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, widely scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the trough from 07N to 13N between the Gambia-Guinea coast and 27W. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters adjacent to eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The northern tip of an East Pacific tropical wave is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1014 mb high over northern Mississippi to another 1014 mb high at the west-central Gulf. These features are providing light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SSE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the modest high and related surface ridge will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf. Moderate southeasterly flow across the far western Gulf will continue through early next week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent easterly trades are causing isolated thunderstorms across southern Cuba, Haiti and nearby waters, and at the western Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near 24N and the Colombian Low over northwestern Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft at the south- central basin. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the south-central basin, while moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the central and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh winds are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through this evening, while gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere in the western basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough runs northeastward from east of the northwest Bahamas at 28N73W to just south of Bermuda. Widely scattered moderate convection exists near and up to 180 nm southeast of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High across 31N46W to near the central Bahamas. This ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell north of 27N between 25W and 70W. North of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present. Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident from 12N to 27N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles/Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NNE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue off northeastern Florida through early Sat morning. The Atlantic Ridge will dominate the basin through early next week. ESE trade winds will increase to fresh this weekend south of 25N and east of 75W. Winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong during the afternoons and evenings Sat through Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan