000 AXNT20 KNHC 031805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 03 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The latest forecast from the METEO-FRANCE shows that gale-force winds are in the AGADIR marine zone, from 03/1200 UTC until 04/0000 UTC. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Azores high pressure center and the comparatively lower NW Africa surface pressures, will lead to the gale-force northerly winds. It is likely that the sea heights may range from 10 feet to 11 feet in the gale-force wind area. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/ affiche/2, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean is along 23W/24W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 09N to 12N between 28W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 08N to 13N between the tropical wave and 32W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 13N between 35W and 45W. This precipitation also is near the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 04N to 14N. Isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. The wave is moving through parts of Central America and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 82W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Most of the precipitation is from the tropical wave westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N southward, from 80W westward. A north-to-south oriented line of precipitation is moving toward the coast of Central America, from Panama to Honduras. A tropical wave is along 99W in Mexico, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 90W westward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 12N30W, and 10N46W. The ITCZ continues from 10N46W, to 09N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information about the 99W tropical wave, and the precipitation. A broad surface ridge extends from 30N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, through SE Louisiana, to the lower Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot from the coastal waters of Louisiana, toward the Yucatan Peninsula and everywhere else from 90W eastward. The sea heights are 2 feet from the coastal waters of the middle Texas Gulf coast to the west central Gulf. The sea heights are 3 feet elsewhere in the SW corner of the area. A weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes in the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf. Moderate SE to S winds are in the SW and in the west central Gulf. Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information about the 85W/86W tropical wave. Fresh ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is in the Venezuela coastal waters, and from 17N to 21N between 60W and 67W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC, are: 0.91 in Trinidad, 0.83 in Bermuda, 0.68 in Guadeloupe and in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.57 in Merida in Mexico, and 0.19 in Freeport in the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras during the late afternoons and evenings through Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere in the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure center is near Bermuda. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 25N74W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward between 58W and the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 55W eastward. Light winds are in the areas of the surface anticyclonic wind flow. Elsewhere west of 60W, wind speeds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 60W, except 5 to 6 ft near 30N70W. Fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas from roughly 16N to 27N east of 46W, between this ridge and the tropical waves that are more to the south. Stronger NE winds are off Morocco, Western Sahara and near the Canary Islands. Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere. A surface trough extending from 31N65W to 25N73W will drift SE through today, then retreat by the end of the week. SW winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh off NE Florida Fri night into early Sat. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. $$ mt/al