860 AXNT20 KNHC 030953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between the Azores High and lower pressures over northwestern Africa will lead to a period of gale force northerly winds today near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir. The latest forecast from Meteo France has gale force winds from 03/1200 UTC to 04/0000 UTC. Seas will likely be 10 to 11 ft within the gale force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 07N to 22N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 06N to 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 47W and 59W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83/84W from 20N southward to the Panama/Costa Rica border, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 14N to 19N between 81W and 87W. A tropical wave is moving through the western Bay of Campeche along 96W from 21N southward through southern Mexico to the Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the southwestern Bay of Campeche, south of 22N and west of 94W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 11N22W to 11N40W to 10N45W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 12N between 23W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 34W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas across the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf. Over the SW and west-central Gulf, moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail. No significant areas of showers or thunderstorms are seen, other than the area described in the tropical waves section above. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will continue through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered north of the area is supporting fresh ENE trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in this area are 5 to 6 ft, according to recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered thunderstorms associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough are noted south of 10N between 76W and 78W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the SE Caribbean south of 14N and east of 67W. Some thunderstorms are also noted off the south coast of the eastern Dominican Republic. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean, except pusling to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras during the late afternoons and evenings through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N66W to 26N73W. This trough also shows up in the upper-levels a bit farther west, from 31N69W to the northwest Bahamas. East of the trough axis, scattered showers and tstorms are prevalent north of 28N between 48W and 66W. Only isolated showers are elsewhere across the western Atlantic. A surface ridge axis with light to gentle winds extends along 24/25N between 60W and the Bahamas. Elsewhere west of 60W, wind speeds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 60W, except 5 to 6 ft near 30N70W. Farther east, a broad ridge dominates the Atlantic, centered on 1028 mb high pressure west of the Azores near 37N38W. Earlier scatterometer and recent altimeter passes indicate a band of fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas from roughly 16N to 27N east of 46W, between this ridge and tropical waves farther south. Stronger NE winds are noted off Morocco, Western Sahara and near the Canary Islands. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface trough extending from 31N66W to 26N73W will drift SE through today, then retreat by the end of the week. SW winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh off NE Florida Fri night into early Sat. The area of fresh trade winds from 16N to 27N between 25W and 46W will move westward, so expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend from 15N to 25N between 60W and 75W. $$ Hagen