000 AXNT20 KNHC 030528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted along this tropical wave at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 19N southward to Panama, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A tropical wave is moving through the Bay of Campeche through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The wave is along 95W/96W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough from the coast of Mauritania to 13N20W to 10N45W. The ITCZ continues from 10N45W to 12N52W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 24W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 37W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft combined seas across the Gulf. A few showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of Campeche following the northern portion of a tropical wave moving through the region. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow will develop across the far western Gulf tonight through the upcoming weekend. A trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds along the coast of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in this area are likely 5 to 7 ft. Fresh E winds may be funneling along the coast of central Honduras, south of Roatan. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted. Thunderstorm activity is evident over the Gulf of Gonave, on the southeast side of an upper trough situated north of the area. No significant convection is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean, except pusling to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from roughly Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted west of this trough, north of 28N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near Inagua Island in the southern Bahamas, and off the central north coast of the Dominican Republic, southeast of an upper trough situated north of the area. This pattern is also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N between 55W and 60W. Farther east, a broad ridge dominates the Atlantic, centered on 1030 mb high pressure west of the Azores near 36N37W. Several scatterometer and concurrent altimeter passes indicated a band of fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas from roughly 15N to 25N east of 45W, between this ridge and tropical waves farther south. Stronger NE winds are noted off northwest Africa. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from 31N67W to 26N72W will drift SE through Thu, then retreat by the end of the week. NW of the trough, moderate to locally fresh NE winds between Bermuda and NE Florida tonight will diminish Thu. SW winds will then increase to moderate to locally fresh off NE Florida Fri night into Sat. Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early next week. Expect trade winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. $$ Christensen