567 AXNT20 KNHC 010602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning (Invest AL96): A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 23.2N54.3W or about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW 10 to 15 kts. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 23N to 25N between 50W and 55W. Winds are near gale force in the eastern semicircle in the vicinity of the convection. Peak seas are at 12 ft. However, showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with the low. Environmental conditions still could support tropical cyclone formation during the next few days while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48h is medium. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 20W from 08N to 22N moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen in association with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 37W from 04N to 19N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N between 28W and 36W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is located near 68W from western Puerto Rico to Venezuela moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is seen in association with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave was relocated based on wave diagnostic and is now near 87W from the Gulf of Honduras across Central America and into the eastern Pacific. Convection associated with this wave has mainly moved into the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W to 06N54W. In addition to the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 42W and 52W. A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate with isolated strong convection south of 10N. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is producing scattered moderate convection in the Louisiana offshore waters. Another surface trough developed over the Yucatan Peninsula and is producing isolated moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, the weather pattern is quite benign across the basin as a weak ridge dominates the sensible weather. Winds are light to gentle with 1 to 2 ft seas. For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf. The ridge will stay in place over the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds by the middle to latter part of the week. High pressure will shift SE into the east Gulf Tue and Wed and allow for moderate return flow to develop across the W Gulf Wed night through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES and the MONSOON TROUGH sections above for information on the waves moving across the Caribbean and convection near Panama. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate in the eastern Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds are light to gentle in the NW Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, a 1014 mb low pressure near 23N54.5W is disrupting the Atlantic ridging N of the area. This is supporting fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean. These winds will persist through most of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest Area AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential for tropical cyclone development. Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 27N between 65W and 72W and between 73W and 80W in association with mid and upper level features. A 1030 mb subtropical high pressure centered SW of the Azores extends a surface ridge from 31N57W to western Bahamas. North of the ridge, gentle to moderate SW winds prevail with 2 to 5 ft seas. South of the ridge moderate easterly winds dominate with 4 to 5 ft seas. Winds are gentle near the ridge axis. East of 55W, AL96 is generating seas in excess of 8 ft from 23N to 29N between 50W and 56W. These seas are building and expanding. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure over Africa is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas. Locally strong winds are noted in the gaps between the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a 1014 mb low pressure near 23N54.5W is producing a small area of gale-force winds to the east of the center. Environmental conditions still could support tropical cyclone formation during the next couple days while the system moves northwestward and then northward around 10 kt over the central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of formation over the next 48 hours. By the time it reaches the offshore waters west of 55W early Tue morning, the winds are forecast to weaken to below gale force. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue S of 23N through early Tue before diminishing. Fresh trades will pulse during the afternoon through early evening hours through Tue N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida Tue night and move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. $$ KRV