000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 290503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the disturbance moves west- northwestward to northwestward at aboutabout 13 kt. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 69W from 03N to 19N moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A robust tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located near 85W from the Gulf of Honduras across Central America and into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at around 10 kt. Satellite and surface observations indicate that the wave and an associated broad area of low pressure are moving inland over Central America, and development is not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N between 81W and 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the trough from 06N to 12N E of 29W. This convection may be associated with the next tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the western Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 25W, W of 94W. The thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula has developed, resulting in moderate convection in the southwestern Gulf. Another surface trough continues to meander near the Florida Peninsula, producing moderate convection near the west-central Florida offshore waters. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, weak ridging prevails with a high pressure of 1019 mb centered around the coast of Pensacola, Florida. Northeast to east winds are gentle to moderate, and seas are 1 to 3 ft. Some locally fresh winds with seas up to 4 ft have developed just offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough is moving west. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin through early next week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface trough across Florida will drift W across the eastern Gulf through late Sat and become the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, no significant convection is seen. The pressure gradient between the expansive Bermuda High and low pressure over Colombia currently supports fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean through Sun, then become confined to the south central Caribbean through early next week. A strong tropical wave over Central America will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the W Caribbean through Sun. The next strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the wave and move NW into the open Atlantic through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low pressure centered between the Florida/Georgia state line, is producing scattered moderate convection north of 28N west of 78W. Other areas of convention in the basin are associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic and the Monsoon Trough. For more information on this, please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH sections above. In addition, an area of Saharan Air is depicted by GOES-16 Dust product east of 38W and north of 11N. Therefore, areas of lower visibility, with hazy skies may be possible within this area. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1027 mb expansive Bermuda High centered near 33N47W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin from 20N to 31N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 8 ft across the basin. An area of strong NE winds is from 18N to 22N east of 22W near the coast of Mauritania, with seas up to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Active weather will continue within 120 nm on the Florida coast through Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Developing surface low will move NW then N across the eastern offshore zones Sun through Wed. $$ KRV