000 AXNT20 KNHC 281655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 41W from 03N to 19N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 15N between 36W and 46W. This tropical wave has a LOW (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 64W from 03N to 19N moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A robust tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located near 83W from 04N to 20N moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 81W and 87W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This tropical wave has a LOW (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 08N50W. No additional convection is noted beyond what is described in the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the W Bay of Campeche is producing scattered moderate convection from 18N to 23N west of 93W. A surface trough extends southwest from 1017 mb low pressure located just north of Jacksonville, Florida, across Lake Okeechobee, the Florida Keys, and terminates in the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the Dry Tortugas and the Everglades. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, weak ridging prevails with high pressure centered in coastal Mississippi. Easterly winds are gentle to moderate, and seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin through early next week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface trough across Florida will drift W across the eastern Gulf this afternoon through late Sat and become the focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and low pressure over Colombia currently supports fresh trades across the central and western Caribbean, with locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 6-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the entire central Caribbean through Sat morning, then become confined to the south central Caribbean Sat afternoon through early Mon. A strong tropical wave over the west Caribbean will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sat, as it moves into central America. Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the wave and move NW into the open Atlantic through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1017 mb low pressure centered just north of Jacksonville, Florida, is producing some scattered moderate convection over the far NW discussion waters. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of 1027 mb subtropical high centered near 32N44W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin from 20N to 31N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. An area of strong NE winds is from 18N to 21N east of 20W near the coast of Mauritania, with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend as a surface trough along the Florida Peninsula continues drifting west- northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Active weather will continue within 120 nm on the Florida coast through Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun through Mon. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along the wave by late Sun and move NW to N across the eastern offshore zones through Wed. $$ Mahoney