000 AXNT20 KNHC 280539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 38W from 03N to 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 06N to 16N between 30W and 48W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 58W from 03N to 19N moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. A robust tropical wave in the central Caribbean is located near 80W from 04N to 20N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 20N between 77W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N50W. All significant convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level divergence is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern and southeastern Gulf, including the west coast of Florida, the Florida Straits, and Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are present across the northern Gulf. Outside of convection, a 1018 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the southern Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin through early next week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A 1028 mb Bermuda high is located near 33N47W and is maintaining a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted over the central basin, including waters between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident for the eastern basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through early Mon. A strong tropical wave over the west Caribbean will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sat, before moving into central America. Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough near southeast Florida along with abundant tropical moisture is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 74W. Elsewhere, an expansive Bermuda High centered near 33N47W is dominating the sensible weather. Therefore, no significant convective activity is seen in the Atlantic, aside from convection associated with tropical waves. In the western Atlantic winds are generally moderate from the ESE with 4-7 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, the gradient between a ridge of high pressure and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is generating gentle to moderate easterly winds north of 25N with 3-5 ft seas, and moderate to fresh south of 25N with 6-9 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-8 ft seas. Locally strong NE winds are noted along the coast of Africa, and near the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend as a surface trough along 80W moves slowly west-northwestward into Florida and southeastern U.S. coasts over the next few days. Active weather will continue with and SE of this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun through Mon, with surface low pressure expected to develop. $$ KRV