000 AXNT20 KNHC 272213 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 35W from 03N to 19N moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 05N to 16N between 30W and 48W. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 54W from 02N to 18N moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 07N to 16N between 50W and 56W. A robust tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 78W from 04N to 20N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 17N between 72W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 10N50W. All significant convection is described in the tropical waves section above. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level divergence is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms at the southwestern and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are present across the northern Gulf. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the southern Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin through early next week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are causing isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A 1028 mb subtropical high near 33N43W is maintaining a trade- wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted over the central basin, including waters between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident for the eastern basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through early Mon. A strong tropical wave over the west-central Caribbean will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sat, before moving into central America. Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough just east of Florida along with abundant tropical moisture is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 75W. Otherwise the gradient between a ridge of high pressure along 33N and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is dominating the weather pattern. In the western Atlantic winds are generally moderate from the ESE with 4-7 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, easterly winds are gentle to moderate north of 25N with 3-5 ft seas, and moderate to fresh south of 25N with 6-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft seas. Locally strong NE winds are noted along the coast of Africa, and near the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend as a surface trough along 80W moves slowly west-northwestward into Florida and southeastern U.S. coasts over the next few days. Active weather will continue with and SE of this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun through Mon, with surface low pressure expected to develop. $$ Flynn