000 AXNT20 KNHC 262150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical extends along 29W from 04N to 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 03N to 18N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this feature. A robust tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea extends along 72W from 05N to 20N. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 13N to 20N between 65W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 08N55W. Associated convection is isolated and weak. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Modest convergent easterly winds are coupling with moist divergent southerly flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including southern Florida and the Florida Keys. A surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge extends across the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the soutern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the N Gulf will remain the dominant feature across the basin into the weekend. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The sub-tropical ridge maintains a standard trade-wind pattern over much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found over the central and eastern basin, and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the southwestern basin, except gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in easterly swell north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will resume pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean Thu night through the weekend. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through early Sat, before moving into central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of surface troughs combined with aboundant tropical moisture is supporting scattered moderate convection west of 70W. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate in this area, with 3-5 ft seas. Otherwise subtropical high pressure dominates the basin. In the remainder of the western and central Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the E with 4-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds remain moderate, but from the NE. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted along the coast of Africa and between the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend as a surface trough along 75W moves slowly west-northwestward into the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days. Active weather will occur with and ahead of this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun and Mon. $$ Flynn