000 AXNT20 KNHC 260344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 15N and between the coast of western Africa to 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection to isolated strong is observed from 04N to 10N and between 38W and 45W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave, formerly Invest 95L, has its axis along 67W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection and gusty winds are occurring across the eastern Caribbean Sea, also affecting the Leeward Islands and the eastern Greater Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 08N48W. See the Tropical Waves section for information on convection. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front located over the southern United States and an upper level low in the NW Caribbean, along with divergence aloft, sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions under a weak high pressure. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW Yucatan, especially south of 24N and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will remain dominant the feature across the basin into late this week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and the 1008 mb Colombian low pressure continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the eastern and north-central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean due to the strong tropical wave moving across the region. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. An upper level low in the NW Caribbean and divergence aloft continue to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong convection, mainly north of 18N and west of 76W. The storm activity is affecting central Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the Bahamas. No deep convection is noted in the rest of the basin, except for the eastern Caribbean due to the aforementioned strong tropical wave. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the next couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong beginning on Wed. A tropical wave, Invest AL95, over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some locally heavy rains over portions of the adjacent land areas. Development of this system is not anticipated while it continues to move rapidly westward over the Caribbean during the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough located between Bermuda and the Bahamas and divergence aloft continue to support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection mainly west of 67W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 1028 mb subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the basin, especially north of the deep tropics and east of 70W, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area will gradually shift northward this week as a surface trough, currently located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. $$ DELGADO