000 AXNT20 KNHC 251757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 21W from 19N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 19N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Most of the wave north of 10N is enveloped by dry Saharan dust, thus no deep convection is present at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave, Invest AL95 is near 63W from near Anguilla southward into northeastern Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds are occurring across the eastern Caribbean Sea, including the Lesser Antilles. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development for this wave during the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania/Senegal border, then curves southwestward through 10N30W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm north, and 200 nm south of the trough west of 28W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 08N47W to near the Windward Islands at 13N61W. Widely scattered showers are noted near and up to 160 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A very weak stationary front drapes across the north-central Gulf from near New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle, no convection is observed near this feature. A surface trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the northwestern and north-central Gulf, southwest and south of New Orleans. Another surface trough is producing similar conditions at the western Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the central Gulf to just south of Brownsville, Texas is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain the dominant feature across the basin into late this week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that emerges off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. The surface trough to the south of the stationary front will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low near 20N84W is triggering isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge to the north near 27N and Colombian Low are causing fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south-central and southwestern basin, mainly north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted for the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will maintain fresh to strong trades across the southwestern and south-central basin the next couple of days. Winds should diminish to between moderate and fresh by Wed. The tropical wave, Invest AL95 is expect to track westward across the eastern and central basin over the next few days, generating locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced by an upper-level low north of Puerto Rico near 24N66W, a surface trough south-southwest of Bermuda near 27N69W is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30W between 65W and 74W. Isolated thunderstorms are found farther west over the northwest Bahamas and near southeastern Florida. The northern tip of a tropical wave near the northern Leeward Islands is causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N west of 30W. Otherwise, a large dome of 1029 mb Mid-Atlantic High near 34N48W supports gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 20N between the Africa coast and 30W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist across the central and southeast Bahamas. Just east of the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present from 11N to 20N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. Farther east, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate from 11N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 55W. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the modest surface ridge dominating the western Atlantic will gradually shift northward this week. This is in response to the surface trough south-southwest of Bermuda moving west-northwestward towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and into the weekend. Fresh trades will pulse nightly north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere west of 55W, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area, except moderate to fresh northeast of the Leeward Islands. $$ Forecaster Chan