000 AXNT20 KNHC 251014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, extending its axis along 19W and S of 19N. The wave is estimated to move W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis mainly E of 24W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of 19N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Most of the wave axis is enveloped by dry Saharan dust, thus no deep convection is present at this time. A tropical wave, Invest 95L, extends from 20N60W to 05N63W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 22N and between 55W and 67W, affecting the Lesser Antilles. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds from 12N to 23N and between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6-9 ft in the area described. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two before it moves into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds. Even though development is unlikely, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 14N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is evident within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast, but no deep convection is noted with this feature at this time. An area of scattered moderate convection has developed along the coastline of SE Mexico, affecting the western Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge centered over the western Atlantic and a dry airmass that suppresses the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW Yucatan, especially south of 25N and W of 88W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure ridge will remain dominant the feature across the basin into late this week. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. A stationary front continues inland the northern Gulf coast providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms in adjacent waters for the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently entering the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the the subtropical ridge over Atlantic and a 1009 mb Colombian low continues to sustain strong to near gale easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh easterly breezes elsewhere. Seas are 6-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. An upper level low is evident in the NW Caribbean Sea, inducing a scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the waters in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. The remainder of the basin is under a dry Saharan airmass that suppresses the formation of showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the next couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong beginning on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic near 28N74W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 29N66W to 25N69W with scattered showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and into the weekend. This trough has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge prevails maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The ridge is anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 35N47W. The weak pressure gradient prevalent across the basin sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft, mainly E of 65W and north of the deep tropics. Light to gentle easterly winds and 2-4 ft prevail west of 65W. The exception being the entrance of the Windward Passage, where moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure dominating the area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. $$ ERA