000 AXNT20 KNHC 241743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Don is centered near 47.6N 40.7W at 24/1500 UTC or 510 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. No deep convection remains with the system. The post- tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation tomorrow. Don should continue to gradually weaken, before dissipating tomorrow. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 04N-20N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N-10N and 28W-35W. A Atlantic tropical wave has been added in association with Invest 95L low pressure. The wave has its axis along 54W from 05N-20N with a 1012 mb low centered at 11N53W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Winds fresh to strong from 12N-20N between 49W-58W with seas 8-10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N-17N between 51W-60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N17W to 09N33W to a weak 1012 mb low at 11N53W. The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 09N61W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N-13N between 19W-27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped along the N Gulf Coast from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana to the Florida panhandle coast. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N91W east-northeastward to 30N84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N-29N between 87W-91W. The diurnally-forced surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is associated with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 23N west of 94W. Away from the convection, winds across the basin are moderate or weaker with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered near the Florida Peninsula will remain dominant the feature for the Gulf into late week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. A stationary front just inland the northern Gulf coast will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms in adjacent waters for the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong to near gale trades in the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas are 6- 10 ft in the S central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Aside from the convection associated with Invest 95L, scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N west of 80W due to the eastern extent of eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough. An extensive Saharan Air Layer is noted over the western and central Caribbean, helping to suppress convection over the Great Antilles and the Yucatan. For the forecast, winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong tonight into Thu over the central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trades will occur over the Gulf of Honduras into tonight. Low pressure, Invest AL95, over the tropical N Atlantic is several hundred nm east of the Windward Islands. Some slow development of the low remains possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Expect increasing winds and seas with the low. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Don in the north-central Atlantic. An expansive ridge extends across the Atlantic from the 1033 mb Bermuda High near 33N45W. Aside from the winds/seas/convection associated with the Invest 95L disturbance, the trades are generally moderate to fresh 15N-30N east of 60W and weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft east of 55W and 2-5 ft west of 55W. A weak surface trough extends from 22N67W to 28N63W with isolated moderate convection noted from 22N-29N between 59W-67W. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to locally fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. $$ Landsea/Konarik