000 AXNT20 KNHC 230538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0525 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Don is centered near 41.4N 49.6W at 23/0300 UTC, or 350 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas near the center are up to 30 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 120 nm of the center with the strongest convection occurring in the southern quadrant. A turn northeastward is expected tomorrow, with a northeastward to east-northeastward motion expected to continue until the system dissipates Monday night or early Tuesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin shortly, and Don is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S. Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 19W and 27W. An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 19W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted along the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 85W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The interaction between the wave axis and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south of 14N and west of 80W to the coast of Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W to 11N30W to a 1012 mb low pressure (Invest 95L) near 11N44W to 11N41W. No significant convection is evident beyond what was described in the Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the southern United States and is enhancing the storm activity across the northern Gulf coast. A few of the showers and thunderstorms are also affecting the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther south, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the Gulf is in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent across the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the eastern Gulf will remain dominant into early next week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula daily during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Wave section above for details on the convection in the SW Caribbean Sea. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Saharan dust covers most of the Caribbean, resulting in drier conditions, above normal temperatures and reduced visibility. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South America continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds are occurring off northern Colombia. In the rest of the Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 5-8 ft over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras and 2-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean into Sun. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong Sun night into Wed. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Mon. Low pressure, AL95, well east of the region is forecast to move into Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles early next week, possibly as a tropical cyclone. Expect increasing wind and seas over these waters in association with this low pressure system. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Don in the north-central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low pressure system, designated as Invest 95L, is located near 11N41W or about 870 nm east of the Windward Islands. Shower activity remains limited, mainly from 10N to 16N and between 42W and 48W. Fresh easterly winds are found in the northern quadrant, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Although environmental conditions are only forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development, this system could still become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast when the system moves into the central Caribbean around midweek, decreasing the chances of formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An upper level trough centered south of Bermuda is inducing a few showers north of 26N and between 67W and 71W. Farther west, an outflow boundary is moving south off central Florida and near the NW Bahamas and is producing a few showers. The rest of the western Atlantic (west of 55W) is in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail west of 55W. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the pattern is dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure near the Azores. The strong pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa sustain fresh to near gale-force northerly winds in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 19N and east of 35W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The strongest winds are noted north of 25N and east of 22W. Seas in the affected area are 6-9 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure will dominate through early next week. Fresh trades may pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage starting Sun. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker into early next week. $$ DELGADO