000 AXNT20 KNHC 210559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don was centered near 34.8N 44.7W at 21/0300 UTC or 875 nm west of the Azores, and moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at 16 ft near the center with 12 to 15 ft seas up to 120 nm in a northern semicircle, and 60 nm in a southern semicircle from the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 50 nm in a southern semicircle from the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 19N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 26W and 33W. A modest central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from southwest of Haiti near 17N southward into northwestern Colombia. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through 12N30W to 08N46W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 26W. Widely scattered showers are present from 04N to 11N between 35W and 48W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough at the central Gulf is producing isolated thunderstorms. The northern tip of a East Pacific tropical wave is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge related to a 1018 nm high over the northeastern Gulf continues to dominate the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident across the eastern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through early next week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced slightly by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent easterly trade winds are coupling with mid-level troughing to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Tight gradient between the Bermuda High and Colombian Low sustains strong to near-gale easterly winds with 9 to 11 ft seas for the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found at the north-central basin. Gentle ENE to E winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft in easterly swell are present near Costa Rica/Panama, and between Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will maintain fresh to near-gale trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds should diminish to between fresh and strong Sun through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over the Gulf of Honduras Sat night through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest information on Tropical Storm Don. An elongated upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 27N56W is generating scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 54W and 66W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda High near 27N69W is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 43W and the Georgia- Florida coast. To the south, moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from 20N to 24N between 43W and the Bahamas. Farther east, the Azores High is channeling gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and 20W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present north of 19N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and 4 to 5 ft seas exist from 04N to 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, and from 13N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 45W. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and shift east-southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades just north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage will diminish Fri. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker through Tue. $$ Forecaster Chan