000 AXNT20 KNHC 202107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.7N 43.7W at 20/2100 UTC or 830 nm W of the Azores moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm SE semicircle of Don. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is neat 29W from 19N southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 25W and 30W. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W south of 18N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from west Africa near 20N17W to 14N23W to 09N40W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 20N E of 13W, and from 07N to 12N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the SE Gulf is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf. Elsewhere, surface high pressure prevails. A weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft across the Gulf waters. For the forecast, a weak ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. This will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Central America/N South America will maintain fresh to near gale trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds should diminish down to fresh to strong Sun through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over the Gulf of Honduras Sat night through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest information on Tropical Storm Don. High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters N of 20N, except surface troughing south of T.S. Don. Fresh to strong winds are found N of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 40W, and light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High centered near 27N69W this afternoon will weaken and shift east-southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades just north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage will diminish by Fri. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker through Tue. $$ AL