000 AXNT20 KNHC 192100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don is centered near 33.8N 40.3W at 19/2100 UTC or 690 nm WSW of the Azores moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 32N to 36N between 37W and 42W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 28W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is note from 05N to 12N between 24W and 29W. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 65W from 16N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 62W and 69W. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 83W from 20N southward moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 21N between 80W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of northern Senegal near 16N16W to 07N46W. The ITCZ continues from 07N46W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 20W and 23W, and from 08N to 13N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds are found over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on TS Don, located N of the area near 33.8N 40.3W. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, with the exception of troughing to the south of TS Don. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of Hispaniola, with gentle to moderate winds generally prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in northerly swell south of TS Don, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area will weaken and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu as a cold front moves across the southeastern United States. This will support mainly moderate to locally fresh winds, except for fresh to strong easterly winds and generally moderate seas just N of Hispaniola through Thu night. $$ AL