000 AXNT20 KNHC 190605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.3N 39.0W at 19/0300 UTC or 620 nm WSW of the Azores, and drifting south at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 65 nm in an east semicircle from the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 19N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 15N between the Senegal-Guinea coast and 22W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from 08N to 11N between 55W and 57W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from near the Cayman Islands southward through central Panama, and moving westward around 15 kt. Interacting with an upper-level low to the west near 18N84W, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the Costa Rica coast, and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and curves southwestward through 10N25W to 10N38W. Scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 220 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 22W. An ITCZ continues from 10N38W through 09N45W to north of French Guiana at 08N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is coupling with the northern tip of a tropical wave to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. An upper-level trough is producing isolated thunderstorms at the central and southeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending westward from central Florida to just north of Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are noted at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas existed at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the weekend. This should support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche where winds will be moderate to fresh, enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms at the eastern basin. Refer to the Tropical Wave sections for additional weather in the basin. Tight gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and lower pressure at northwestern Colombia is causing fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Mainly fresh E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central basin. Gentle E to ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the northwest basin and just north of Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate with locally fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the waters near Cayman Islands. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Wed through Thu during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds associated with the Bermuda High axis are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central Bahamas. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge related to both the Bermuda and Azores Highs are promoting light to gentle with locally moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between 20W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen north of 19N between the Africa coast and 20W. Across the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen from 12N to 19N between 31W and 55W. Near and just east of the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are dominating from 11N to 19N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft existed from 11N to 19N between 20W and 31W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal west winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High pressure will weaken and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu. This will support mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and generally moderate seas just north of Hispaniola at night through Thu night. $$ Forecaster Chan