630 AXNT20 KNHC 170405 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Depression Don is centered near 39.4N 45.8W at 17/0300 UTC or 880 nm W of the Azores moving E at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection is displaced over the eastern quadrant, extending up to 250 nm from the center. Don is forecast to turn southeastward on Monday, southward on Tuesday, and westward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic. Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so, but Don may intensify slightly and transition into a fully tropical system on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 17N, moving westward at 20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13N and between 26W and 42W. A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea. The trough axis is along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the wave axis, affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N30W to 09N46W. No other deep convection is noted in the monsoon trough and ITCZ trough aside from the convection discussed in the TROPICAL WAVES section. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure persists across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. However, evening storms that formed over the northern Gulf coast and SW Florida are also impacting the nearshore waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 3-5 ft are affecting the waters of the Bay of Campeche, especially south of 24N and east of 95W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the central Texas coast through mid week. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica and continues eastward to NW Colombia. Along with plenty of tropical moisture, this trough is helping to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the SW Caribbean. Storm activity that formed over eastern Cuba and Haiti during the afternoon and evening hours have progressed towards the coast and are affecting the nearshore waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over northern South America continue to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in the north-central Caribbean waters, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through the period. These winds will increase in areal coverage and extend to portions of the SW basin as the waves move across these regions. Moderate to fresh winds are forecast for the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding Subtropical Depression Don. Divergence flow aloft is helping to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Atlantic, especially north of 26N and west of 63W. The remainder of the basin (west of 55W) is under the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Fresh easterly trade winds are noted between the SE Bahamas and NE Cuba and northern Haiti, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Fresh to locally moderate northerly winds are found in the eastern Atlantic, mainly east of 25W. Seas in the area described are 4-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring off Morocco. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure and ridging will prevail across the forecast waters through Fri, supporting mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Hispaniola at night. $$ DELGADO