000 AXNT20 KNHC 160949 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 38.6N 48.4W at 16/0900 UTC or 1010 nm W of the Azores, moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt. Dry air has been wrapping into Don, and therefore only a small area of scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Seas in excess of 12 ft are likely within 150 nm in the northern semicircle and southeast quadrant. Don is gradually bending to the right and an eastward motion is expected later today as high pressure builds over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to the southeast is expected on Monday followed by a southward motion as the ridge shifts westward and a trough becomes established over the northeastern Atlantic. Don could stall or loop around during the middle part of the weak as the steering currents collapse. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh easterly winds within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis and from 14N to 21N. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to 10N35W to 10N45W. The ITCZ is undefined at this time. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 11N and between 32W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche along a surface trough that originated along the western coast of Yucatan yesterday evening. A few showers and thunderstorms were evident along this trough. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in this area. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to the central Texas coast, supporting light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas, except for moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the west- central Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the central Texas coast through mid week, while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent ship observations and 02 UTC scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, mainly ahead of the tropical wave between the Dominican Republic and western Venezuela. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated combined seas are 8 to 12 ft in this area. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely ongoing in the Windward Passage ahead of the tropical wave. Similar conditions are also likely over the Gulf of Honduras, following the westward passage of a tropical wave yesterday evening. Elsewhere moderate winds and seas are noted. Convergence of the trade winds along with abundant moisture are supporting numerous moderate to scattered strong showers and thunderstorms in a line from eastern Panama to central Nicaragua. A few showers and thunderstorm are also evident off the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. For the forecast, the tropical wave currently between the Dominican Republic and western Venezuela will weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean today and across the western Caribbean late Mon. A third tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean late today or tonight, then move across the remainder of the basin through mid week. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. Winds may reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding Subtropical Storm Don. An expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The only convection outside of the deep tropics is seen between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda associated with divergence aloft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present south of 22N and west of 65W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found off NE Florida, along with seas 3-4 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1027 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores supports fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds north of 18N and east of 40W. The strongest winds are occurring off Morocco, Western Sahara and in the water passages between the Canary Islands. Seas in the region described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure will persist east of the Bahamas along 25N through tonight, supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. The ridge will shift northward Mon ahead of a tropical wave that will be approaching the area from the east. The northern portion of the tropical wave will move westward south of 22N through Tue. $$ Christensen