000 AXNT20 KNHC 160359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 38.2N 48.7W at 16/0300 UTC or 1020 nm W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms extends up to 175 nm from the center over the eastern quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds extend within 150 nm NE and 80 nm SE quadrants of center. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 180 nm NE, 150 nm SE, and 180 nm NW quadrants of the center of Don. On the forecast track, Don should turn toward the east on Sunday, southeast on Monday and toward the south by Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days, and Don could become a remnant low pressure area in a few days. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 20N, moving westward at 20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to locally strong easterly winds within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis and from 14N to 21N. Satellite imagery shows a large amplitude wave but it is only producing isolated showers due to a large Saharan airmass. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis. The tropical wave previously located over the western Caribbean Sea has moved into the eastern Pacific basin. For information on this wave, please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues to 18N25W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 12N and between 29W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche associated to the storm activity that developed over the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated showers are also evident over the NE Gulf of Mexico waters due to a weak surface trough. The remainder of the basin is under the western periphery of a weak subtropical ridge positioned south of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche. However, stronger winds are likely near the strong storms in the region. Moderate return flow (southerly winds) are found in the western Gulf, mainly west of 93W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the central Texas coast through mid week, while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica and continues eastward to NW Colombia. Along with plenty of tropical moisture, this trough is helping to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system north of the Caribbean and lower pressures over northern South America continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring within 90 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the north-central Caribbean waters, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean will weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean through late Sun and across the western Caribbean late Mon. A another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean from late Sun, then move across the remainder of the basin through mid week. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. Winds may reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding Subtropical Storm Don. An expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The only convection outside of the deep tropics is seen around 28N67W associated with divergence aloft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present south of 22N and west of 65W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found off NE Florida, along with seas 3-4 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores supports fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds north of 18N and east of 40W. The strongest winds are occurring off Morocco, Western Sahara and in the water passages between the Canary Islands. Seas in the region described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist east of the Bahamas along 25N through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. The ridge will shift northward into Mon ahead of a tropical wave that will be approaching the area from the east. The northern portion of the tropical wave will move westward south of 22N through Tue. $$ DELGADO