000 AXNT20 KNHC 141729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Subtropical Storm Don, at 14/1500 UTC, is near 33.7N 47.3W. Don is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are 12 feet within: 260 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong is within 770 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Canary Islands area Gale-Force Wind Warning: The Meteo France forecast consists of gale-force winds in the CANARIAS marine zone until 15/0000 UTC. Please, read the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, listed on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 660 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and around the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are from 15N to 21N between 36W and 43W. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet within 540 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 320 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 14N. Isolated moderate is within 340 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 05N to 14N. Other isolated moderate is within 520 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 07N to 14N. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, generally, between the tropical wave and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/79W, from Cuba southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 450 nm to the west of the tropical wave from Nicaragua northward; and within 100 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 16N to Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is near the Bahamas from 21N to 25N between 73W and 77W. Strong NE-to-E winds have been within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 11N to Jamaica. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 10 feet between 74W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Senegal, to 11N20W, and to 10N36W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 40W and 51W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 07N to 09N between 17W and 20W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 12N southward from 25W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows a trough near the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 100 nm of the coast between 85W and 88W, and in parts of the coastal plains, of the Florida Panhandle. An Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N68W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure center, to the NW Bahamas, into the east central Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is flat and weak. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet, from the middle Texas Gulf coast to the west central Gulf and southwestward. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower wind speeds span the area. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters, through early next week, while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, with precipitation that is to the west of it. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/79W. Precipitation is around this tropical wave. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details about the precipitation, the wind speeds, and the sea heights that are related to the two tropical waves. Mostly fresh, and some strong, NE winds, and sea heights that have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet, are elsewhere to the east of the 77W/79W tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that have been ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet, are elsewhere to the west of the tropical wave. The monsoon trough is along 10N73W, beyond 07N83W. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is to the south of the line that runs from 12N at the Nicaragua coast to 10N at the Colombia coast. A tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba to western Panama will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through late Sat. Another tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands and through the southeastern Caribbean Sat, then weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean through late Sun and across the western Caribbean Mon and Mon night. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Subtropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean, and a GALE- FORCE WIND WARNING in the METEO-FRANCE marine zone CANARIAS. An Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N68W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 55W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 40W westward. Fresh to strong and faster winds are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N northward from 45W westward. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 20N northward from 45W eastward. High pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of a tropical wave that will be approaching the area from the east. $$ mt/ja