000 AXNT20 KNHC 130545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic, currently extending along a line 16N29W to 02N32W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 28W and 32W. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 16N to 02N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 43W and 46W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along a line from 21N66W to 08N71W, moving west at near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed on both sides of the wave from 16N to 20N between 66W and 73W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Banjul, Senegal near 14N17W to 10N38W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 10N38W to 11N44W and from 10N47W to 07N57W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed along the eastern segment of the ITCZ just off the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and slight seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... For details about convection in the Caribbean Sea, please see the Tropical Wave section above. The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will move westward to the central Caribbean through Thu and the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the SE Caribbean Sat, the south-central Caribbean Sun, and the western Caribbean Mon. The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Wave and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for convection in the tropical Atlantic. A stationary decaying frontal boundary extends off the Florida coast from 31N72W to 27N79W. Most of the convection associated with this front has dissipated North of the front, winds are gentle from the W-NW. South of the front, winds are gentle from the SW. Seas are generally 1-3 ft on either side. Invest area AL94 is located near 32N51W about 700 miles east of Bermuda with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. While this system is north of the discussion area, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate convection are observed north of 26N between 42W and 50W. Otherwise across the western and central basin, the subtropical ridge extends westward along 25/26N. Winds are gentle near the ridge axis. North of the ridge, winds are gentle from the west. South of the ridge, winds are moderate from the east. Seas are 3-6 ft across this area. In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas. Similar conditions extend into the central Atlantic south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. A weak stationary front between Bermuda and northeast Florida will dissipate through early Thu morning. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave will move westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N both ahead of and following the tropical wave. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of another tropical wave approaching the area from the east. $$ KRV