000 AXNT20 KNHC 091031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 06N to 19N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 09N to 12N between 37W and 43W. Resent ASCAT data reveal fresh winds in association with this wave. Seas of 8 to 9 ft follow the wave based on altimeter data. Looking ahead, this wave is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters just E of the Leeward Islands on Tue, and over the NE Caribbean on Wed. A tropical wave is along 58W from 09N to 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 69W/70W, and extends from east of Dominican Republic to west Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of the wave axis continues to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island. Convection is on increase over Dominican Republic and adjacent coastal waters. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted on the E side of the wave axis. Moisture associated with this feature will spread over Hispaniola today increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. A tropical wave is over the central Bay of Campeche and extends southward into the EPAC region. The wave is helping to induce moderate to isolated strong convection across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Further discussion about this tropical wave will be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, then continues SW to near 11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 09N40W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 45W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region. A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. This trough usually develops over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours and moves westward across the Bay of Campeche through the morning hours and dissipate. Recent scatterometer data indicate an area of moderate to fresh winds in association with this trough, covering the waters from 19N to 23N between 88W and 93W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevail. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf, with highest seas near the trough axis, and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf. A small area of showers and thunderstorms is noted over the SE Gulf just N of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... An active tropical wave is reaching Hispaniola. Please see the Tropical Wave section above for more details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still noted behind the wave axis over the eastern Caribbean. Similar convective activity is also noted over the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh winds are observed elsewhere based on satellite derived wind data data, except in the lee of Cuba, and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica where winds are mainly light. Seas are 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, with highest seas near the coast of Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters E of the Leeward Islands on Tue, and over the NE Caribbean on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1026 mb located SW of the Azores near 32N33W dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. The associated ridge extends westward toward the central Bahamas and South Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds are between the western periphery of the ridge and a broad area of low pressure off the SE of United States. These winds are affecting the waters N of 27N and W of 70W based on scatterometer data. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within this area of winds. the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure over W Africa, supports fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the coast of Morocco and Mauritania. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are seen across the tropical Atlantic while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with the exception of light to gentle winds across the ridge axis. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS shows African dust reaching the Lesser Antilles. An upper-level low spinning near 24N54W is generating some shower activity. For the forecast W of 55W, A ridge will remain in place while a trough persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. The pressure gradient between these two features will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 27N, increasing briefly to fresh to strong speeds today mainly across the waters N of 29N between 65W and 74W. Moderate to locally fresh E trade winds are expected south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through mid- week. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere along the ridge axis. $$ GR