000 AXNT20 KNHC 090547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the wave to 42W and from 09N to 13N. Resent ASCAT data reveals fresh winds in association with this wave. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 09N to 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen in association with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave has it axis along 69W from inland Venezuela to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of the wave have affected Puerto Rico and the U.S./UK Virgin Island through the night. Resent ASCAT data reveals fresh to strong winds along the strongest convection, just south of Puerto Rico. Expect for this activity to linger into Sun morning as moisture remains at quite high levels in the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is just along the coasts of Campeche and it reaches southward to the eastern Pacific near 06N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the interior portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa south of Senegal to 10N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 12N36W and resumes at 11N38W through 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 45W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge axis that extends from the Atlantic across the Straits of Florida has changed little. Its associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow over the basin. Seas are in the range of 2-4 ft seas, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft in the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over the Campeche Bay in association with a tropical wave and a surface through. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... An active tropical wave is currently affecting Puerto Rico and the U.S/UK Virgin Islands. For more details about the convection associated with this wave, please see the Tropical Wave section above. Fresh trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail in the remainder of the basin, with 3-6 ft seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen in the offshore waters south of eastern Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse across the central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Sun night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters E of the Leeward Islands on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper level trough is producing isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Florida coast to 29N64W. A Tropical Upper- Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is identified on water vapor imagery near 26N54W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring north of 28N between 51W-56W in association with the TUTT. A tropical wave is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms in the Central Atlantic. For more information about this tropical wave please see the Tropical Wave section above. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge centered near the Azores continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic, as does a broad area of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the deep tropics south of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of 20N along with seas of 6-8 ft, and gentle to locally moderate trades persist north of 20N with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters while a trough persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next week. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere along the ridge axis. $$ KRV