791 AXNT20 KNHC 081018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 26W/27W south of 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. A tropical wave extends along 49W from 19N to 09N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen at this time. A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 63W/64W south of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the wave axis affecting the Lesser Antilles and regional waters as well as the eastern Caribbean. The wave appears to enhance some convective activity over eastern Venezuela. Moisture associated with this wave will spread over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today increasing the likelihood of rain. The wave is forecast to move across Hispaniola on Sun. Another tropical wave is along 87W from 20N southward into the EPAC region, moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh SE winds follow the wave based on recent scatterometer pass. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 12N26W to 09N38W. The ITCZ continues from 09N38W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 44W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. This trough usually develops over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours and moves westward. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is near the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the northern Gulf. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of gentle to moderate NW winds over the NE Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf. Light and variable winds prevail over the SE Gulf, where a weak high pressure center is forecast to persist over the next 48-72 hours. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf, with highest seas near the trough axis, and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... A couple of tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. Aside for the convection related to the tropical waves, numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the coast of Nicaragua. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh winds are observed elsewhere based on satellite derived wind data data, except in the SW Caribbean S of 12N, and in the lee of Cuba where winds are mainly light. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse across the central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, Sun night, and again on Tue night. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1026 mb located SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. The associated ridge extends westward toward the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are between the western periphery of the ridge and a broad area of low pressure off the SE of United States affecting the waters N of 27N between 70W and 77W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within this area of winds. Fresh to strong winds are just N of Hispaniola to about 21N between 70W and 73W. Similar wind speeds and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range are between the aforementioned high pressure and the W coast of Africa, particularly from 20N to 24N E of 23W, and between the high pressure and ahead of the tropical wave with axis along 26W/27W, mainly from 15N to 21N between 28W and 35W. Gentle to moderate winds are seen elsewhere under the influence of the ridge with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 4 ft N of 20N and W of 42W. An upper-level low spinning near 24N57W combined with the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean supports an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms near and to the NE of the Leeward Islands. This convective activity currently covers the waters from 15N to 21N between 52W and 62W. For the forecast west of 55W, Weak ridge will persist along 25N, south of a trough that will persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next week. Light winds will persist along the ridge axis. $$ GR