000 AXNT20 KNHC 080351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W from 19N to 06N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 19N to 09N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. A tropical wave approaching the eastern Caribbean extends along 60/61W from 19N to 06N, moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed east of the wave axis from 09N to 21N between 54W and 61W. Scattered strong convection is seen ahead of the wave across much of northeastern Venezuela. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 21N southward into the tropical Pacific, moving west at 5-10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed throughout much of the NW Caribbean, with numerous moderate convection over western Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 05N53W. No deep convection is observed over the Atlantic at this time, however a westward moving line of thunderstorms is approaching the coast of Senegal and Mauritania. GULF OF MEXICO... A high-pressure ridge from the Atlantic continues to dominate the pattern. A surface trough along Florida is supporting coastal thunderstorms in the NE Gulf. Another trough near the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting scattered moderate convection in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise widely isolated thunderstorms are observed throughout the majority of the basin. In the SW Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE-S with 3- 5 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a daily trough develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on convection and tropical waves. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting mainly fresh trade winds across the basin, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast near Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse across the central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sun night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A subtropical ridge persists across the western Atlantic, disrupted by a weak 1018 mb low pressure center near 28N58W. Isolated weak convection is observed west of 63W and north of 25N. Winds in this area are moderate to fresh from the SW with 3- 6 ft seas. In the western Atlantic south of the ridge axis along 25N, winds shift to moderate to fresh easterlies. An area of gentle winds and slight seas is noted near the ridge weakness in the west-central subtropical Atlantic. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is influenced by the gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure and lower pressure in the deep tropics and NW Africa. North of 25N, winds are moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 25N, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge will persist along 25N, south of a trough that will persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of 27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next week. Light winds will persist elsewhere. $$ Flynn