000 AXNT20 KNHC 062315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic near the W coast of Africa. Satellite imagery and precipitable water products suggests that this wave is still involved with the cyclonic monsoonal circulation there, and has not shifted westward away from the coast yet. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N E of 24W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W from 09N to 19N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W-53W, south of 16N moving west near 15 kt. A broad area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed with this wave, south of 13N between 51W and 55W. A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 82W south of 19N and into the far eastern tropical Pacific, moving west at 15 kt. This wave is interacting with upper level low pressure over the NW Caribbean and producing scattered moderate to strong convection S of 22N between 79W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 09N51W. Convection with these features is described above with the tropical waves. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure is centered across the NE Gulf near 27N86W. The pressure gradient between this weak high and a surface trough along the coast in the Veracruz, Mexico area is producing moderate E to SE winds across the western Gulf, W of 90W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Earlier altimeter data across the western Gulf showed a few isolated spots of 6 ft seas. Light winds and seas 3 ft or less prevail across the eastern Gulf. A low level southerly wind surge is observed in satellite imagery across the coastal waters of Mexico and into SE Texas, where scattered squalls and moderate to strong convection are moving northward across the waters N of 22N and W of 90W. This activity is being supported by an upper trough extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley across Texas and into NE Mexico. Elsewhere, widely scattered cells of moderate convection continue across the nearshore coastal waters, in the Florida Big Bend, and offshore of the FL- GA border. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Large clusters of moderate to strong convection in the NW and SW Caribbean are primarily associated with a tropical wave described in the Tropical Waves section above. A strong low level wind surge follows this tropical wave in the basin, with 20-25 kt winds extending from the wave axis eastward to near 69W. Buoy data show that seas 8 to 10 ft seas are covering a large portion of the central Caribbean S of 17N. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail W of the wave axis along 80W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft, and possibly higher near convection. A deep layered upper trough extends from the central Atlantic SW through the Bahamas and into the NW Caribbean, and is supporting convection ahead of the tropical wave. This upper level feature will continue to support active convection with the tropical wave through Fri. For the forecast, the tropical wave along 81W will move west across the western Caribbean into Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly across the central Caribbean, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Winds and seas over the central Caribbean will diminish slightly Fri through Sat. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Fri night and reach the central Caribbean Sat night. The area of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will expand again behind this tropical wave, Sun night into Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb low pressure near 28N59W disrupts overall high pressure dominating the basin. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection has developed this morning E of the low, from 24N to 30N between 54W and 76W. This convection is occurring across the SE periphery of a pair of upper level low centers anchoring an Atlantic TUTT that is strung out from the central Atlantic SW through the Bahamas, and will maintain unstable conditions into tonight. W of the surface low, light to gentle anticyclonic flow generally prevails W of 60W, where seas are 2-4 ft, except 4-6 ft N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. A broad zone of thick SAL dominates the waters N of the Greater Antilles to 25N and between 60W and 75W. A 1028 mb Azores high is located near 34N37W and extends a ridge south and west that dominates the remainder of the Atlantic. Trade winds E of 60W are generally gentle to moderate with areas of fresh winds near the tropical wave along 51-53W, and S of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the tropical Atlantic. A typical tight pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure across NW Africa is producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds within 30 nm of the African coast from 15N to 28N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of the area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail into early next week, locally strong N of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours today through Sat. The high pressure ridge will shift south Sat night, ahead of a series of weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun. These troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the northern waters Sat through Mon. $$ AReinhart