000 AXNT20 KNHC 060356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W from 16N to 03N moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49/50W from 16N to 04N moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the wave from 09N to 11N between 46W and 49W. A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W from 18N to 07N moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 12N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 07N44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 41W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure centered in the N Gulf near 28N88W is the dominate feature, with a surface trough along the west coast of Florida and another along the Yucatan Peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed in coastal areas throughout the northern, eastern and SE Gulf, particularly in the Yucatan Channel. In the NE Gulf, winds are mostly to gentle to moderate outside of thunderstorms. In the SW Gulf winds are moderate to fresh from the SE. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a trough over the western Gulf will move NW and inland tonight, taking fresh to locally strong SE winds with it. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and again Thu night as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate convection is observed in the NW Caribbean, specifically near Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. A relatively tight gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean, enhanced by a passing tropical wave, is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the majority of the basin. 9-11 ft seas are noted in the south- central Caribbean, with 6-9 ft seas in the remainder of the central Caribbean. Winds are moderate in the far eastern and far NW Caribbean, and gentle throughout the Clark basin and Gulf of Darien in the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in these areas of lighter wind. For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move west across the western Caribbean into Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly across the central Caribbean. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A recent scatterometer pass confirmed circulation from deep layer low pressure is reaching the surface near 28N59W. Convection, however, has waned over the last few hours and the winds remain gentle. This low is embedded in a high-pressure ridge extending WSW from a 1029 mb high centered near 36N38W. In the western Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the S with 3-5 ft seas. In the west-central Atlantic, winds become gentle north of 22N between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, E winds are generally moderate with 3-6 ft seas. The strongest winds in the basin are in the far eastern Atlantic where NE winds are fresh to strong, generating 7-10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of the area into Thu night. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Fri night, occurring behind a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the high-pressure ridge will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun. One of these troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the northern waters over the weekend. $$ Flynn