825 AXNT20 KNHC 051018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 06N to 13N between 24W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southwestward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 12N between 41W and 49W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Haiti to the Venezuela-Colombia border, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on both sides of the wave axis from Hispaniola to Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal and curves southwestward to 11N28W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 08N to 12N between Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 17W. An ITCZ continues from 11N28W across 10N36W to 07N43W, then resumes from 06N46W to near the French Guiana-Brazil border at 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection extends 150 nm on either side of the eastern ITCZ segment, with convection near the western segment primarily associated with the tropical wave depicted in the section above. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 10N is causing scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters near northwestern Colombia and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough that extends from 27N94W to 21N96W is inducing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 26N between 90W and 96W. The northern tip of an eastern Pacific tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche, where scattered moderate convection is occurring. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high centered offshore western Florida is dominating much of the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present at the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE return flow and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the trough over the western Gulf will move NW and inland today, taking scattered showers and thunderstorms and fresh SE winds with it. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection just S of Cuba has dissipated early this morning. Ongoing convection in the central and SW basin are due to the monsoon trough and a tropical wave, both describe in above sections. Fresh to strong mainly E trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident near the tropical wave at the central basin. Moderate to fresh ESE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the eastern basin. Moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted for the southwestern basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate NE to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move west across the western Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly across the central Caribbean, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge near Hispaniola and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Hence, the lack of tropical wave activity in the central Atlantic. Hazy conditions with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within this area for the next couple of days. Deep layer low pressure S of Bermuda near 27N65W is inducing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 30N between 55W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for details on additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extends WSW from a 1029 mb Azores High centered near 35N42W across Bermuda to the Florida Peninsula. This ridging is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 23N, except in the far E Atlantic in the vicinity of and south of the Canary Islands, where fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. To the S of the main influence of the ridge, moderate to fresh trades dominate, except for waters near and S of the Cabo Verde Islands, where gentle and variable winds prevail. Seas S of 23N are 4 to 7 ft, highest just E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, weak Bermuda to Azores High will maintain a weak pressure gradient and lead to light gentle winds across most of the area through late week. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail into Fri, occurring with and behind a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun. $$ KONARIK