000 AXNT20 KNHC 030934 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 20N southward across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near this feature. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 14N southward into French Guiana, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 15N between 48W and 58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over northern Suriname. A strong and large central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from south of the Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving west around 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are found over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and northwestern Venezuela. Another tropical wave is near 90W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Guatemala into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up from just north of the Yucatan Channel southward across the Gulf of Honduras to over Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through 15N21W to 09N26W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 05N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 17W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 09N26W across 05N35W to 05N47W. No significant convection is noted near the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean waters, near northwest Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection near the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge related to a 1015 mb high at the east-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are found at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE return flow and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through early week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for weather in the basin. Tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near the central Bahamas and the Colombian Low is causing fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft at the south-central basin, north of Colombia and northwestern Venezuela. Gentle E to ESE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are present at the southwestern basin north of Panama, and near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to between fresh and strong Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters should decrease some tonight, then increase again and expand in areal coverage Mon night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends northeastward from Hispaniola across 31N65W to northeast of Bermuda. Divergent winds near and east of the trough axis are generating scattered moderate convection from 22N to 29N between 58W and 74W. Another upper- level trough extending southward from a pronounced upper low near 34N36W is producing isolated thunderstorms north of 28N between 32W and 39W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 30W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 23N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. To the south, gentle NNE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate northerly and southerly swells are seen near the Cabo Verde Islands from 13N to 23N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 19N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal southwesterly winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will sustain light to gentle winds across much of the area early this week. South of 22N, winds will increase to between moderate and fresh starting Mon, then continue through mid week. $$ Forecaster Chan