000 AXNT20 KNHC 021733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, from 06N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N east of 18W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 10N between 49W and 53W. Scattered showers are near the northern terminus of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W, from 17N southward over central Venezuela, moving west at 10-15 kt. A tropical wave is along 87W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacifc. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, exists in the SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 15N between the coast of Colombia and the coast of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 08N26W then continues westward to 06N32W. An ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 09N47W. Scattered showers are near both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails in the Gulf of Mexico, with light and variable winds and seas of 1-3 ft. Recent altimiter data from Sentinel-6A nicely captures the calm seas. Weak surface troughs are in the central Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through early this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh starting Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical waves and convection. Compared to 1800 UTC yesterday, a weaker subtropical ridge over the W Atlantic has allowed winds and seas to slightly diminish. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the central Caribbean, with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trades are detected by scatterometer in the E and SW Caribbean, with 4-6 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean, with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central waters decrease some tonight, then increase and expand in coverage Mon night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of surface troughs are producing an area of scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30N between 54W and 67W. 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N45W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are across the basin north of 20N, with seas of 4-6 ft. South of 20N, trades are mainly moderate with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will lead to mainly gentle winds across the area for the first part of the week. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Mon. $$ Mahoney