000 AXNT20 KNHC 012243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jul 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from from 08N to 11N between 43W and 45W. An Atlantic tropical wave is over the Leeward and Windward Islands along 62W, from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 05N to 17N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt into Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 75W and 81W, and also from 13N to 16N between 82W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, then extends southwestward to 08N30W then westward to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 0810N between 27W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1017 mb high pressure is centered in the northeast Gulf, just offshore the Florida Panhandle. Weak surface troughs are analyzed in the Bay of Campeche and just north of the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical waves and convection. Fresh to strong trades continue in the central Caribbean, as observed by scatterometer this morning. As a result, elevated seas of 6-9 ft persist in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. In the northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle trades prevail with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue into Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central waters will expand in coverage through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper level low is centered just west of Bermuda, with a trough extending to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over a wide swath reaching from the southern Bahamas to east of the Bermuda. A 1014 mb surface low is centered in this area east of Bermuda, near 33N62W, with a trough reaching to 26N67W. 1024 mb surface high pressure is centered near 29N40W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of the 20N and south of the ridge, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted north of 20N and east of 35W, with gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 20N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends southward into the area to about 27N66W. This trough will lift N of the area by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sun east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night. $$ Christensen