000 AXNT20 KNHC 011655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 43W and 50W, and from 09N to 11N between 38W and 45W. An Atlantic tropical wave is just west of Barbados along 60W, from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave passage was captured well on the 1200 UTC Barbados Upper Air Sounding. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is alon 82W from 05N to 17N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 75W and 81W, and also from 12N to 15N west of 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 08N31W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 22W and 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 mb high pressure is centered in the NE Gulf waters, just offshore the Florida Panhandle. Weak surface troughs are analyzed in the Bay of Campeche and just north of the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on tropical waves and convection. Fresh to strong trades continue in the central Caribbean, as observed by scatterometer this morning. As a result, elevated seas of 6-9 ft persist in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. In the northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle trades prevail with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Tue into Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central waters will expand in coverage through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and tstorms are impacting the Bahamas and S Florida, in the vicinity of a surface trough extending to the NE from Miami. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of another surface trough, that extends from 31N63W to 27N67W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 28N44W. Trades are moderate to locally fresh across the basin east of 60W, with 4-7 ft seas. West of 60W, winds are light and variable with 2-4 ft seas. In the far NE waters, strong to near gale force gap winds are observed on scatterometer between the Canary Islands, with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently S of Bermuda will lift N of the area by tonight, while the trough further W will dissipate. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sun east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night. This trough will lift N of the area by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sun east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. S of 22N, winds will increase to moderate to fresh starting Sun night. $$ Mahoney